Title of the course: A Primer on Decision under Uncertainty and Subjective Probability
Instructor’s Name: Asst. Prof. Umut Keskin
Institution: İstanbul Bilgi Üniversitesi
Dates: 17-21 August 2020
Prerequisites: Basic knowledge of formal proofs
Level: Graduate and advanced undergraduate
Abstract: This will be a course on subjective probability and decision making under uncertainty designed for advanced undergraduate students and first year graduate students. Intended audience is students from the fields of mathematics, economics or finance however those from other fields are definitely welcome. The tentative course outline is as follows:
Informal review of frequentist approach to probability.
Normative discussion of objective probability in social sciences
Introduction to formal preference theory
Expected value and elicitation of subjective probabilities
St. Petersburg paradox and subjective expected utility
Discussion on empirical violations of expected utility
Alternative models with subjective probability.
Language: English